The Tamaulipas Most Wanted List Revisited

 

On July 28, new articles reported "Two months after the initiation of the new strategy of security in Tamaulipas, the federal forces have detained seven of the 14 individuals that they identified as priorities".  What was previously said to be a list of twelve was now reported as comprised of fourteen individuals.  

Further complicating the issue was the names of the seven individuals that were captured, which are as follows:

So what are we to conclude?  The difference between an April start date and a May start date is a relatively minor matter at first glance and could be explained as a difference between announcement and actual action, the existence of two very different lists is not so easily overlooked. 

The most simple explanation would be that the very existence of the first list was made up by 24 HORAS.  As news agencies try to out scoop each other, this does make sense, however, there is one problem.  It is hard to believe they made up the existence of the list in the first place as an actual list has emerged. 

Maybe they were aware that a list was in existence and decided to come up with the individuals they felt would be on the list.  If that were the case, it would not be much more of a step to believe that 24 HORAS received an unofficial list from government sources, a rough draft of sorts, that would be heavily revised, thus rendering the original list obsolete.

Yet there is another more sinister possibility.  Obviously both articles reference the same change in strategy.  Yet, as mentioned before, there is a one month gap between the 24 HORAS article and the alleged start of the strategy mentioned in the newer articles.  According to the above graphic, which is based on information from Segob, Fernando "Z-16" Martínez Magaña and Juan Fernando "El Ferrari"Álvarez Cortez/Francisco Ramírez Rivera were both arrested on May 14. 

Let us not be too cynical, these arrests were important and the government should be commended for achieving them, yet neither appear on the 24 HORAS list.  Could it be that the government, in celebration of their accomplishment, decided to call them high priority targets and, in doing so, began to pain themselves into a corner? 

It would be simple enough to add "Z-16" and "El Ferrari" to the list, expanding it from twelve to fourteen individuals and the subsequent arrest of "Juan Perros" would not be an issue.  Yet as more arrests were achieved and celebrated as attacking high priority targets, the original list would be rendered void.

Keep in mind, this is just a theory, but it is feasible that the government, after randomly calling several other arrested individuals high priority targets, reached a point in which they wanted to formalize their achievements.  Therefore, rather than using the original starting date of the new strategy, a new date in May was chosen in order to make the results appear to have occurred more quickly and the original list was ignored in order to substantially increase the number of targeted arrests achieved. 

While this theory may be completely wrong, there are two things that reinforce the possibility at the very least.  As far as I am aware of, though the article refers to their being fourteen priority targets, the identity of the other seven individuals has not been published.  With that being the case, the government has free rein to arrest an individual and then announce that they were on the list as they see fit.

Then there is the matter of Juan Pablo "El Cherrys" Leal Gutiérrez.  Although he is well known online for the videos and pictures he has posted, the general consensus among people who follow the inner workings of the Gulf Cartel is that he is not much more than a glorified sicario leader.  The fact that he is included on the list of priority targets is highly suspicious and appears to be an effort to increase the success rate.  Call it a conspiracy theory if you want, but with all the smoke an mirrors that occurs in the narco wars, at least it is worth considering.


Postscript: As I was writing the final draft of this article, it was reported that Javier Aldemar "El Comandnate Diablo" Morales Estrada was arrested.  In the Milenio article about his arrest, he was called "one of the 14 priority targets identified by the federal government".  If this is the case, he would be the eighth to be arrested.  His inclusion on the list, in my opinion, meets the exact same criteria as "El Cherrys" and increases my skepticism even further.


Sources:
24 HORAS- Buscan en Tamaulipas a 12 líderes del narco
Milenio- En 2 meses caen 7 de 14 objetivos en Tamaulipas