Translated to English by Chivís from original article published in: La Silla Rota
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By Víctor Manuel Sánchez Valdés
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It seems, that the person in a better position to take command of the Juarez Cartel, is the current leader of La Línea: Juan Pablo Ledezma alias,"El JL ", who has long served as the right hand for Vicente Carrillo Fuentes, who delegated Ledezma to many of the operational responsibilities of drug trafficking and the control of various places in northern Chihuahua.
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Another aspect to consider is that Barrio Azteca has a better position than La Línea in the distribution of the drug in the United States, having a network of allied gangs that can move product in several cities of the American Union, however, La Línea has better contacts to acquire the drug. Hypothetically, if Barrio Azteca splits with La Línea, it can compromise their drug supply and see revenues suffer.
So there are incentives for both parties to continue working as a team, although one cannot rule out that La Línea may try to find another organization that helps to distribute the product in the United States or Barrio Azteca attains another drug provider.
By Víctor Manuel Sánchez Valdés
In its heyday, the Juarez cartel became the most powerful criminal organization in the country, it was present in over half of the states and dozens of cities in the United States, as well as contacts in several countries in South America and Europe.
Now there is a different reality, the Juarez Cartel is far from what it was in the 90's, when Amado Carrillo was in charge of the organization. Today, the cartel barely is in control of several municipalities in northern Chihuahua and has a moderate presence in Sonora, Sinaloa, Durango and Coahuila. If we factor in the arrest of their leader, Vicente Carrillo Fuentes alias " El Viceroy", last Thursday in the city of Torreón, one must accept that the Juarez Cartel faces significant challenges to ensure its survival as an organization.
In recent years, the Juárez Cartel has changed significantly, converting from a criminal organization with a vertical chain of command, to a cartel that operates from a decentralization scheme, where some of the organizations that comprise it, operates semi-independently, as in the case of La Línea and Barrio Azteca.
The great transformation of this criminal organization, derived from its confrontation with the Sinaloa cartel for control of Juárez Metropolitan Area, this caused major changes in the structure and operation of the group, the Juárez Cartel had to form a group of assassins to defend its territory and also forged alliances with local gangs to expand their power.
Over the years, the leadership of the Juárez Cartel, began delegating more tasks to the group of assassins known as La Línea and the gang, Barrio Azteca. These tasks included not only defending territory or attacking members of rival organizations, but also became involved in operational functions of buying, trafficking, distribution and sale of drugs in Mexico and the United States.
In particular, members of La Línea have been involved in the transport of drugs through the territory of our country, and at the junction of the United States, meanwhile, members of Barrio Azteca have a large network drug distribution in cities of the American Union, as this gang has a presence in several locations, but also maintains alliances with gangs operating in other areas.
La Línea and Barrio Azteca operational autonomy have expanded over the years, as well as direct participation in the economic benefits of the Juárez Cartel, that is why the immediate future of the Juárez Cartel cannot be explained without seeking to unravel the possible strategies that can play out within these two organizations, after the arrest of Vicente Carrillo Fuentes.
Other characters that have the potential (although very low) to gain control of the Juarez Cartel, are Eduardo “Tablas” Ravelo, who is the current leader of the Barrio Azteca , and who since 2009 has been part of the list of 10 most wanted by the FBI and Juan Pablo Guijarro " El Monico" who is the second in command of La Línea and could take advantage of the power vacuum in the organization, to try towards moving up in the organization of the cartel.
Both La Línea and Barrio Azteca , have significant firepower, so in a scenario where Juan Pablo Ledezma and Eduardo Ravelo fail to agree on which of them is left in charge of the organization, it may cause bloody power struggle that would epicenter in the Juarez Metropolitan Area.
So there are incentives for both parties to continue working as a team, although one cannot rule out that La Línea may try to find another organization that helps to distribute the product in the United States or Barrio Azteca attains another drug provider.
Because of this, one cannot rule out the feasibility of a scenario where there is a fragmentation of the Juarez Cartel into two smaller units, formed by members of La Línea (and part of the current dome) and another by members of Barrio Azteca . However, as the area under the influence of Juárez Cartel, is not very wide, it is expected that if there is fighting, it would be concentrated in the metropolitan area of Juárez.
Another scenario that federal authorities should take seriously is the possibility that other criminal groups attempt to clip the Juárez Cartel, who still control the streets. The first organization interested in taking full control of the metropolitan area of Juárez, is the Sinaloa Cartel, which has hired assassins groups in the area and has alliances with gangs, such as los Mexicles or los Artistas Asesinos that would be in a position to generate an offensive in Ciudad Juárez.
Another organization that might have an interest in getting into the areas controlled by the Juárez Cartel, is Los Zetas, which would be in a position to mobilize troops to the north of Chihuahua, to prevent the Sinaloa Cartel from seizing the region, but also to have additional points from which drug product can enter the United States without the need to recompense piso (“tax”), as they currently pay the Juárez Cartel. continues next page
Empowering La Línea and Barrio Azteca within the structure of the Juarez Cartel, perfectly illustrates a trend that several criminal organizations have experienced in our country, namely, the rise of the hired assassins groups to address criminal enterprises.
The apparatus of hired assassins in drug cartels, grew in size and importance over the past 15 years. For example, the Zetas, La Familia Michoacana and Cartel Jalisco New Generation began as hired killers apparatus for other criminal organizations, and are now independent.
That the hired assassin’s devices have gained influence can be explained from two factors:
The first is that the fight between criminal groups for control of the country and the confrontation between the government and criminal organizations has intensified in recent years. So to ensure their survival, drug cartels hired a significant number of assassins, in order to face external conflict to their organization.
And the second factor, is that these clashes have resulted in a high turnover in the leadership of organizations criminals. Regularly generated power vacuums in these organizations, which sometimes are used by the hired assassins groups as having firepower may compete for the leadership of the organization or can be independent of the criminal group that it served.
The rise of the utilization of hired assassins should concern us, because it means a change from the traditional model of drug trafficking in Mexico. In the past, members of the drug cartels, worried about keeping their operations discreetly as possible, because in this way, the drug could go unnoticed and violence was rarely used.
But what happens when groups become hired assassins for power in cartels? In this scenario violence increases because they become accustom to solving problems by means of weapons.
And lack of drug suppliers, has resulted some groups diversifying to other crimes such as kidnapping or extortion, which require more intensive use of violence.
Because of this, the Federal Government should pay special attention to the metropolitan area of Juárez, because there are chances of an escalation of violence in the region being generated due to the struggle for leadership of the Juárez Cartel or because a rival group seizing the areas that it now controls.