Lucio: translated and republished from 'La Silla Rota' written by Víctor Manuel Sánchez
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Capturing Servando Gómez Martínez, alias “La Tuta ", which occurred yesterday in the city of Morelia, Michoacán, is a blow to the Caballeros Templarios, who in less than a one year period have lost virtually all their leaders.
Note: 'El Tena' was on the original short list of the Autodefensas as a target. He has a loyal following, and good potential to emerge as a leader. 'EL Gallito' is another strong possibility as he already has been working independently.
But, Viagras and their alliance with CJNG is the biggest threat, they have become strong in the past year, they are from Michoacan, have backing of CJNG and their alliance and entities on "the payroll" and have taken over many of the drug labs.
In his last recording La Tuta said about the Viagras:
"The government has identified them and they are within reach. They can arrest them whenever they feel like it. They are right under their noses.
They (Viagras) made a deal and became allies of Nazrio Moreno Gonzalez and El Gallitoto read the text of that last recording link to post here."
La Silla Rota post:
The government has identified them and they are within reach. They can arrest them whenever they feel like it. They are right under their noses.
They (Viagras) made a deal and became allies of Nazrio Moreno Gonzalez and El Gallitoto read the text of that last recording link to post here.Capturing Servando Gómez Martínez, alias “La Tuta ", which occurred yesterday in the city of Morelia, Michoacán, is a blow to the Caballeros Templarios, who in less than a one year period have lost virtually all their leaders.
In fact, the Tuta was the last of the leaders of the Caballeros Templarios, who had the ability to unite different regional cells of the criminal group. Because of this, it is not unreasonable to ask the following question, which will be the theme of this article:
Subsequent to the capture of Servando Gómez Martínez, what structural changes might the Caballeros Templarios experience?
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There are three scenarios raised that may respond to that question. The first scenario is that there will be a struggle within that criminal organization in which any of the regional leaders achieve control of the criminal group. There are at least three candidates are likely to dispute the overall leadership of the Caballeros Templarios, vacated by La Tuta, these are:
Pablo Toscano Padilla “El Quinientos” o “El Quinini”, the Templarios plaza boss of the municipality of Lázaro Cárdenas with influences the municipalities of Arteaga and Tumbiscatío, Ignacio Andrade Rentería, alías “El Cenizo”, plaza boss in Uruapan and surrounding area and Fernando Cruz Mendoza, alias" El Tena " plaza boss in the municipality of Coalcomán.
There are other characters who are likely to contest control of the Templarios, those who had distanced themselves from the organization in recent months because of differences with La Tuta , such as Homero González Rodríguez, alías “El Gallito”. (Tuta referred to him in his last audio message) first cousin Nazario Moreno (former leader of the Caballeros Templarios), who in the last few months has operated independently in southern Michoacán and Nicolás Sierra Santana, leader of the group known as Los Viagras, which split from the Templarios and now maintain an alliance with the Cartel Jalisco New Generation (CJNG).
Notwithstanding the foregoing, It will be difficult for any of these candidates to have the capacity and resources to subject other regional leaders, since many of them have similar forces. An open struggle between factions would be exhausting for all of them. Additionally, It would be difficult for these regional leaders to reach an agreement, so one would assume full control of the organization, because among them there are old deep routed and unresolved issues.
Another scenario more likely that the first, is that none of the regional leaders achieve total control of the Templarios and the organization has to undergo a process of prolonged fragmentation, as happened to the Beltrán-Leyva Cartel, which would result in the organization being divided into several groups of the region, who will have a continuous war fighting each other for territory and for the Templarios trade.
This could be bad news for Michoacán; they could experience the emergence of new criminal groups with characteristics similar to those of the ‘Guerreros Unidos’, and ‘Los Rojos’, which could lead to escalation of violence in several regions of the state, as well as an increase in crime rates as homicides, kidnappings, extortion, drug dealing and theft.
Given this scenario, the Federal Government must anticipate these scenarios, and work to identify potential cells of the Templarios, those who are likely to become independent, in order to find an early disruption and avoid greater problems in the future.
Since nothing would be served by the many municipalities of Michoacán, Guerrero, Guanajuato and the State of Mexico, than to be liberated from the grasp of the Caballeros Templarios only to have a few months later, these municipalities controlled by other criminal organizations, including: CJNG or Los Viagras. The federal government and state governments should make serious efforts to assure the vacancies left by the Templarios are not occupied by other criminal groups.
The third and final scenario, that can potentially emerge is that the process of fragmentation of the Templarios, as experienced by the Beltran Leyva Organization. In this case there could be a regional consolidation, thereby strengthening criminal cells in each locality that would control small market niches but limiting activities to kidnapping and extortion, which would be the only activities available to such groups.
This scenario could be capitalized by the Federal Government, if it poses a strategy to attack the local cells, since the resilience of the latter would be very limited. However, this scenario can also be capitalized by rival criminal organizations that given the weakness of the old networks of the Templarios, may seek to expand their territories. So the dismantling of the structure of the Templarios, may not necessarily result in an improvement in the security of Michoacán and other neighboring states.
In short, capturing Servando Gómez Martínez, alias " La Tuta "cannot be seen as the end of the efforts of the Federal Government to dismantle the Templarios, they are still alive, as there are still many networks that have criminal organization operational capacity, which can carry out illegal activities independently.
Therefore, the arrest of ‘La Tuta” should be seen as an opportunity for the federal government go through each of these local networks and seek its final dismantling.